2 Week 4 Games to stay away from
2 Week 4 Games to stay away from!
Buf at GB (GB -9.5)
I may still have a little hangover from the Bills win in week 3 when they went to Minnesota as 16 point underdogs and won 27-6. But that's one of the reasons why i’m saying to stay away from this game.
The Bills SHOWED UP to Minnesota ready to play. They shut down the Vikings offense all game long. They held the Vikings starting running back to just 1 yard. Kirk Cousins was getting pressure in his face all game. He was sacked 4 times and fumbled the ball 3 times. The Bills defense played lights out and held Cousins to a QBR of 10.0. This week, we could see a similar defensive game plan against a hobbled Aaron Rodgers. but then again, maybe the Bills go back to being the Bills we all thought they were and Rodgers carves them up. This is one of the reasons i’m staying from this game.
The Packers are supposed to win this game by double digits at home but so were the Vikings. The Packers offense still has some questions going in to this game. Their offense is a double sided coin. On one side, they have Aaron Rodgers, good receivers, good 0-line and pretty good depth at the RB position. On the other side, the Packers are 29th in the redzone scoring TD’s. They are also below average on 3rd down efficiency. It begs the question.. where is Jimmy Graham?!
The Packers defense is suspect, as they rank 23rd in total yards allowed. They are who I thought they would be. So nothing much to note on their defensive side other than to ask the question if Clay Matthews gets another roughing the passer penalty? lol
The passer the Packers defense will go against is rookie Josh Allen. Allen had a fairly easy day last week against the Vikings despite super low expectations. I still think Allen has the most bust potential out of all the quarterbacks that were drafted in the first round in this years draft. Because of that, I think the Vikings game could have been an anomaly and Allen takes a step back. But he is going against a weaker defense in week 4 and could have future hall of famer Lesean McCoy back in the lineup.
I’m staying away from this game because I don't know if the Bills defense can consistently stay great. Even if they can or cant… Aaron Rodgers is still not 100%, so that raises another question. Is Josh Allen for real? Its way to soon for me to put any confidence in Allen. For all these reasons I do not want any part of this game. If the line changes, I would be more inclined to take the Bills +10 or Packers -9. But still a lot of questions.
SEA at ARI (SEA -3)
This game is less about stats for me then it is about just general questions. Cards rookie Josh Rosen will get his first start this week against the Seahawks at home. For me as a general rule, I don't like to bet on a game when a rookie gets his first start. Rosen, was the most NFL ready QB I believed out of the draft. Never-the-less. This game has to many questions for me to be interested. The Seahawks defense still hasn't found their identity and their offense still has a lot of questions as well, specifically, the offensive line. On the Cardinals side, they actually have a few really good players, such as RB David Johnson and defender Chandler Jones who has accumulated the most sacks out of any other player since 2015. If Rosen plays well, we could see the Cardinals beat the Seahawks.. but then again…maybe not.
For all these reasons, I do not want any part of this game. If this game gets to SEA -4 or ARI +4 Ill take that, but for now, no.